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Climate Theory And Discussion

Try to figure out the climate conclusively, so no one else will have to worry about it anymore.
by Alistair Riddoch
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After reading through Milankovitch Cycles (MC) and the genius behind their discovery, its pretty evident that ice-ages (glacials) in the last half million years are mostly influenced by this phenomenon [Fig. 1] ( Ref - http://goo.gl/piVTym ) albeit with some discrepancies [Fig. 2] (Ref - http://goo.gl/VE3htv ).

One of the observations from the past ice-ages is that, at the end of each ice-age, temperatures rise abruptly accompanied by rising CO2 levels and then both of them drop gradually. [Fig .3]

In an interglacial, if the greenhouse gas effect was significant, earth should stay warm and not heed to much weaker insolation variations due to Milankovitch cycles. [Fig. 4] From another perspective, we could attribute the gradual decline in temperatures after each interglacial to slow assimilation / absorption of CO2 by oceans. In which case, green house gases can have a long lasting impact on the climate.

All this calls for a closer examination of the significance of GH gas emissions, exclusion of other factors preventing faster glaciation after each interglacial and further investigation into the forcings behind rapid rise of temperatures at the end of each glacial.

Update: MC crests represent extreme seasonal variations and MC troughs represent moderate or low seasonal variations. Extreme summers melt glaciers away but extreme winters do not cause intense snowing. (Extremely cold air carries little moisture.) On the other hand, moderate summers melt less snow but moderate winters cause more snowing. Hence, glaciation progresses slowly with accumulating snow from successive winters during MC troughs but glaciers melt away fast in progressively extreme summers during MC crests.

Update: The CO2 system seems to act only as a buffer smoothing out short term variations in insolation but not influencing the trend as such at the observed levels of 180 - 280 ppm.
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Correlation - Milankovitch Cycles
 
 
 
 
 
16 Comments - Show All
 
Praveen Baratam, Maven - 2 years ago Edit
Water vapour is ignored for a good reason. Because of its short half life in the atmosphere, it will only follow, reinforce and amplify trends but can never lead them. If you put a lot´┐╝ of water vapour in the air, it will simply rain! :-) On the other hand, CO2 has a half life of 30-95 years and ~20% of the emitted CO2 stays put for millennia in the atmosphere. ( Ref. - http://goo.gl/3xuK2t ) Lets leave the politics for now! We can get back to them once we figure out the whole thing. :-)
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Praveen Baratam, Maven - 2 years ago Edit
@Alistair - What is your take on abrupt rise in temperatures and receding of glaciers at the end of each ice-age (glacial)? I am not sure if we can attribute such a drastic change to Milankovitch Cycles! There must be some positive feedback mechanisms at play here!
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Praveen Baratam, Maven - 1 year ago Edit
@Nicholas - Fantastic observation! The subject matter deserves a separate post for clarity and continuity rather than spreading it over comments. Elaborate the same in a post for further discussion.
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Nicholas Bc Shumate, Evangelist - 1 year ago Edit
@Praveen- Will do my friend.
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The Climate:

Proposed uncontested knowns, to be taken as true for review:
http://nssdc.gsfc.nasa.gov/planetary/factsheet/earthfact.html


GROSS temperature in Kelvin
Average temperature: 288 K (15 C)
Earths internal heat in Kelvin
Black-body temperature: 254.3 K (-18.85 C)


PROPERTIES of atmosphere

Surface pressure: 1014 mb
Surface density: 1.217 kg/m3
Scale height: 8.5 km
Total mass of atmosphere: 5.1 x 1018 kg
Diurnal temperature range: 283 K to 293 K (10 to 20 C)
Wind speeds: 0 to 100 m/s
Mean molecular weight: 28.97 g/mole

Total mass of hydrosphere: 1.4 x 1021 kg
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Barney Lerten, Contributor - 1 year ago Edit
I, like most of the public, don't have enough scientific background to review such things and decide "who's right." So we shrug our shoulders, muddle along, buy our hybrids, recycle what we can (despite lousy markets and inefficiencies) and hope wiser heads will prevail - not a decision based on politics.
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The rotation period of the Milky Way is 225 million years.

Look at the temperature line on the graph below and see if you think there is a relationship. What was the temperature 225M years ago> 450M years ago?

This is the effect that gravity has on Global Temperature.

Sometimes we are experiencing Universe PLUS the 2/3 Milky Way, Sometimes Universe MINUS 2/3 Milky way. (Remembering we are not right at the edge of the Milky Way.)

In the next images, see the location and path the Sun takes through the Milky Way, and what the movement is of significant objects around us.
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Global Temperature History - 225 million year periods like the Milky Way
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Alistair Riddoch, Contributor - 2 years ago Edit
Look at the pictures of the continental movements as the earth was 225 million years ago, now, and expected to look again in 225 million years, see how they are crescent, inverse crescent, then crescent again?? I don't say this IS related to the universe, just that it looks like it could be. and possibly is. and that it would not surprise me, if so. The hot spot of Hawaii is a global mystery because it is rolling around earth at a rate of once every 200 million years or so.
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Alistair Riddoch, Contributor - 2 years ago Edit
no earthbound layers we know of move at such a slow and steady rate. It may point more often than anywhere else, directly towards the "Great Attractor" and over time, the earth reacts. POSSIBLY.
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Praveen Baratam, Maven - 2 years ago Edit
@Alistair - I am not saying that gravity does not affect climate, just that grav. force of distant stars and galaxies is too feeble to cause any significant impact. Lets discuss the most accused CO2 in detail later! Coming to tectonics and evolution of earth's crust - both oceanic and continental - It is largely influenced by the convection currents in the mantle driven by dissipation of internal heat from the core. Why not quantify the effect of 'Great Attractor' on Earth and share with us?
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Nicholas Bc Shumate, Evangelist - 1 year ago Edit
@Alistair- do you have any published papers, or studies that could add some more information and back up your statements? From what I can tell you seem to be drawing conclusions based on pictures with out any kind of peer reviewed research to add context to them, rendering them somewhat useless in validating any conclusion you or any one else could try to make.
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Pic 1: Historical temperature and carbon graph showing 400,000 years of data

Pic 2: A 250 million year history of the continents. Notice the inversion of the crescent shape) while circling the milky way one complete rotation.

Pic 3: The expected position of the continents in 250 milion years based on current understanding of tectonics, once again presenting an inverted crescent in while circling the milky way once.

Pic 4: Temperature of internal layers

Pic 5: Location and shape of earth's plumes and mantle

Pic 6: Milankovitch cycles

Pic 7: Solar sunspot cycles

Pic 8: Solar magnetic field strength

Pic 9: Earth magnetic field

Pic 10: Gravitity anomaly interference patterns fro GRACE satellite
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400,000 years temperature and carbon by proxy
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
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Praveen Baratam, Maven - 2 years ago Edit
@Alistair - Fantastic! Now lets examine each of these forcings individually and try to quantify their influence on the global temperatures separately. After that we can debate interactions between individual forcings and deduce net influence on the climate of earth. Lets proceed from less complexity to more complexity to keep things comprehensible for everybody.
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